General Election 2010
Thursday, 6 May 2010 02:23![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
strange_complexSo, here we stand on the eve of what is clearly going to be one of the most ground-shaking elections in living memory. I believe the closest I've seen to this level of excitement and sense of change before was in 1997, when Labour overthrew an eighteen-year-old Tory government to begin what has turned out to be a thirteen-year stint in power.
I actually voted last week, because I choose to have a postal ballot for the sake of convenience. Unlike a lot of people in this country (even still at the time of writing), I was never in any real doubt about how I was going to vote in this election, so didn't see any point in delaying the process. I'm certainly never going to vote Tory, so that wasn't an issue. Labour have, in all fairness, done some pretty good things since 1997 - for example, the minimum wage, granting control over interest rates to the Bank of England, and civil partnerships. But they've done some pretty shitty things, too - tuition fees, illegal wars, the campaign for ID cards, and of course lately cutting HEFCE funding so badly that my subject and my own job are now under threat. So there's no way I am going to vote for them either.
Anyway, I never really was. Ever since the first election I was eligible to vote in (which was in fact the 1997 one), I have consistently voted Liberal Democrat. Well - apart from the 2005 election, that is, in which I was disenfranchised because a letter I didn't know I was meant to be expecting got lost in the post. THAT was upsetting, and one hell of a strong reminder of what a precious possession the right to vote actually is.
I vote LibDem partly because I don't like the mainstream parties or the system which keeps them in power, but also because I would genuinely like to see the LibDems forming a government. For as long as I can remember, whenever I've heard a voice on the radio (which is how I get most of my news) saying things which are fair and sensible, it's always seemed to turn out that they were a Liberal Democrat. They are pro-European; they want to make huge investments in public transport; they have a fair and humane policy on immigration; they want to scrap tuition fees and widen access to higher education. They are basically all about the rights of the individual, support for the vulnerable and the breaking down of intolerance and inequity. I'm totally behind that.
This time round, of course, the political landscape is clearly very different from the one I've known ever since I began voting. For the last three elections, I could pretty much vote however I liked, while resting assured that actually, Labour would win. This time, that's no longer the case. Nor, indeed, can we assume a Tory victory. Realistically, it's unlikely that the LibDems are going to win an outright majority in tomorrow's polls. But it's clear that they are suddenly a far more realistic prospect than they have ever been before, and could even come second in terms of the overall proportion of the vote. And that's something I'd really like to see. So, this year I am not only voting for the LibDems - I have given them money, and even become a card-carrying party member.
Some people may want to tell me that this is wrong-headed - that the effect of my idealism will be to let the Tories in through the back door by damaging Labour support. But I don't agree. On a practical level, I've never supported Labour, so they're not losing anything if I continue not to do so. Furthermore, I now live in the Leeds North West constituency, where we already have a sitting Liberal Democrat MP (Greg Mulholland). The Tories came third here in the 2005 election, so the danger of them taking this seat is not very great. There's no need to vote Labour to keep them out - and even if there were, I still don't see why I should when I actually support Greg Mulholland.
In fact, the very fact that people go around arguing in favour of tactical voting is one of the main reasons why I support the LibDems in the first place - because I want to see the sort of electoral reform that would make the very idea of not voting for the party you actually support an anachronism. Nick Clegg put this case very forcefully today on his final day campaigning in Eastbourne:
As for what I think will actually happen? Well, the Tories and their supporting newspapers seem to think they are going to win the most seats. I'm not so sure about that myself. This election is clearly a different beast from the ones we've known recently - but there does usually tend to be a small last-minute swing in favour of the party who are currently in power at most elections. Whatever people say in the run-up, the reality of the polling booth seems to engender a certain feeling of "better the devil you know". So I suspect that the Tories will do slightly worse, and Labour slightly better, than the polls so far might have predicted.
That factor makes a hung parliament all the more likely - and for me that could be a pretty good outcome. Though I'd like the LibDems to win outright, it doesn't realistically look very likely that that will happen. But in a hung parliament situation they will suddenly acquire a lot more power and influence than they have ever had before. I don't know exactly how that situation would play out - though I hope they would remain true enough to their principles to stay the hell away from any kind of stable arrangement with the Tories. But whatever happens, they would certainly have some grounds to push for electoral reform, to stand in the way of the more abhorrent policies of the other two parties, and generally to raise their own profile. That could perhaps be a platform from which to move towards an outright majority at a future election - though I do worry that they could in fact end up tainting their public image through association with either of the other two parties.
Generally speaking, if the LibDems increase their holdings in the commons, ideally achieving a number of seats that goes into triple figures, I'll be happy. Certainly, the UK Parliament is going to be a very different place on Friday from what we knew a month ago. And if the Tories actually win an outright majority? Well, it won't exactly be great, but I comfort myself with the views of the governor of the Bank of England, as reported last week: that the severity of the cuts required after the election in order to reduce our budget deficit will mean that whichever party actually has to implement them will subsequently find themselves "out of power for a whole generation". Even as a staunch LibDem supporter, then, I have to say that it may be for the best if my lot don't get a majority this time after all.
Anyway, tomorrow night I shall be having a few friends round to watch the results as they come in. It's fun to play drinking games involving sips of appropriately-coloured boozes as each seat is declared, of course - but that's also a strategy liable to cause you to cease caring and slide underneath the coffee-table before the night has advanced very far. Some might say that that would be for the best this time - but given that I do actually want to know what is happening, I have chosen an alternative, sugary method of marking the results. After extensive research in town on Tuesday, I concluded that M&Ms offered the best balance of good, strong primary colours, reasonable price and relatively minimal wastage. So I purchased five large packets of them and spent a happy quarter of an hour today sorting them out into their respective colours, like the roadie in Wayne's World.
If the contents of the packets are any indication of the election result, I can report that there will actually be a surprise Labour majority with the LibDems in second place by a narrow margin over the Tories:
If that's how it turns out, just remember folks - you heard it here first!
Click here to view this entry with minimal formatting.
I actually voted last week, because I choose to have a postal ballot for the sake of convenience. Unlike a lot of people in this country (even still at the time of writing), I was never in any real doubt about how I was going to vote in this election, so didn't see any point in delaying the process. I'm certainly never going to vote Tory, so that wasn't an issue. Labour have, in all fairness, done some pretty good things since 1997 - for example, the minimum wage, granting control over interest rates to the Bank of England, and civil partnerships. But they've done some pretty shitty things, too - tuition fees, illegal wars, the campaign for ID cards, and of course lately cutting HEFCE funding so badly that my subject and my own job are now under threat. So there's no way I am going to vote for them either.
Anyway, I never really was. Ever since the first election I was eligible to vote in (which was in fact the 1997 one), I have consistently voted Liberal Democrat. Well - apart from the 2005 election, that is, in which I was disenfranchised because a letter I didn't know I was meant to be expecting got lost in the post. THAT was upsetting, and one hell of a strong reminder of what a precious possession the right to vote actually is.
I vote LibDem partly because I don't like the mainstream parties or the system which keeps them in power, but also because I would genuinely like to see the LibDems forming a government. For as long as I can remember, whenever I've heard a voice on the radio (which is how I get most of my news) saying things which are fair and sensible, it's always seemed to turn out that they were a Liberal Democrat. They are pro-European; they want to make huge investments in public transport; they have a fair and humane policy on immigration; they want to scrap tuition fees and widen access to higher education. They are basically all about the rights of the individual, support for the vulnerable and the breaking down of intolerance and inequity. I'm totally behind that.
This time round, of course, the political landscape is clearly very different from the one I've known ever since I began voting. For the last three elections, I could pretty much vote however I liked, while resting assured that actually, Labour would win. This time, that's no longer the case. Nor, indeed, can we assume a Tory victory. Realistically, it's unlikely that the LibDems are going to win an outright majority in tomorrow's polls. But it's clear that they are suddenly a far more realistic prospect than they have ever been before, and could even come second in terms of the overall proportion of the vote. And that's something I'd really like to see. So, this year I am not only voting for the LibDems - I have given them money, and even become a card-carrying party member.
Some people may want to tell me that this is wrong-headed - that the effect of my idealism will be to let the Tories in through the back door by damaging Labour support. But I don't agree. On a practical level, I've never supported Labour, so they're not losing anything if I continue not to do so. Furthermore, I now live in the Leeds North West constituency, where we already have a sitting Liberal Democrat MP (Greg Mulholland). The Tories came third here in the 2005 election, so the danger of them taking this seat is not very great. There's no need to vote Labour to keep them out - and even if there were, I still don't see why I should when I actually support Greg Mulholland.
In fact, the very fact that people go around arguing in favour of tactical voting is one of the main reasons why I support the LibDems in the first place - because I want to see the sort of electoral reform that would make the very idea of not voting for the party you actually support an anachronism. Nick Clegg put this case very forcefully today on his final day campaigning in Eastbourne:
"Don't let anyone tell you that your vote doesn't count. Aim high - don't settle for second best. This is your country; it is your future; you have as much right as anybody else to shape it in the way that you want." (Video with context here)Of course, we'd need a LibDem majority before we stood any real chance of seeing those principles actually being applied in UK politics. But in accordance with that spirit, I'm not going to succumb to the temptation of trying to tell the people on my friends list to vote for them. You get out there and vote however the hell you like. But I reserve the right to hope that as many people as possible choose to vote LibDem, so that we can all vote for what we actually want in the future.
As for what I think will actually happen? Well, the Tories and their supporting newspapers seem to think they are going to win the most seats. I'm not so sure about that myself. This election is clearly a different beast from the ones we've known recently - but there does usually tend to be a small last-minute swing in favour of the party who are currently in power at most elections. Whatever people say in the run-up, the reality of the polling booth seems to engender a certain feeling of "better the devil you know". So I suspect that the Tories will do slightly worse, and Labour slightly better, than the polls so far might have predicted.
That factor makes a hung parliament all the more likely - and for me that could be a pretty good outcome. Though I'd like the LibDems to win outright, it doesn't realistically look very likely that that will happen. But in a hung parliament situation they will suddenly acquire a lot more power and influence than they have ever had before. I don't know exactly how that situation would play out - though I hope they would remain true enough to their principles to stay the hell away from any kind of stable arrangement with the Tories. But whatever happens, they would certainly have some grounds to push for electoral reform, to stand in the way of the more abhorrent policies of the other two parties, and generally to raise their own profile. That could perhaps be a platform from which to move towards an outright majority at a future election - though I do worry that they could in fact end up tainting their public image through association with either of the other two parties.
Generally speaking, if the LibDems increase their holdings in the commons, ideally achieving a number of seats that goes into triple figures, I'll be happy. Certainly, the UK Parliament is going to be a very different place on Friday from what we knew a month ago. And if the Tories actually win an outright majority? Well, it won't exactly be great, but I comfort myself with the views of the governor of the Bank of England, as reported last week: that the severity of the cuts required after the election in order to reduce our budget deficit will mean that whichever party actually has to implement them will subsequently find themselves "out of power for a whole generation". Even as a staunch LibDem supporter, then, I have to say that it may be for the best if my lot don't get a majority this time after all.
Anyway, tomorrow night I shall be having a few friends round to watch the results as they come in. It's fun to play drinking games involving sips of appropriately-coloured boozes as each seat is declared, of course - but that's also a strategy liable to cause you to cease caring and slide underneath the coffee-table before the night has advanced very far. Some might say that that would be for the best this time - but given that I do actually want to know what is happening, I have chosen an alternative, sugary method of marking the results. After extensive research in town on Tuesday, I concluded that M&Ms offered the best balance of good, strong primary colours, reasonable price and relatively minimal wastage. So I purchased five large packets of them and spent a happy quarter of an hour today sorting them out into their respective colours, like the roadie in Wayne's World.
If the contents of the packets are any indication of the election result, I can report that there will actually be a surprise Labour majority with the LibDems in second place by a narrow margin over the Tories:
If that's how it turns out, just remember folks - you heard it here first!
Click here to view this entry with minimal formatting.
