strange_complex | Entries tagged with poll results

Well, it's nearly five a.m., well over half of the seats have declared now, and so far it's a pretty depressing picture. There have been a few surprising results, but no sense of a big swing of popular opinion; no big shocks or iconic defining moments. Just a slow but steady trickle of seats of all sorts falling to the Conservatives.

Far more depressing, of course, is the spectacle of thousands of voters being deprived of the chance to cast their votes at all because of an inexplicable failure on the part of polling stations across the country to predict that they might want to. I'm particularly bothered to note that most of the places where the polling stations ran out of ballot papers or didn't have time to process everyone who wanted to vote before 10pm were urban constituencies - that is, exactly the places that are most crucial to both Labour and the LibDems.

My silver linings about this are two. One - it has already clearly produced widespread rage, and we have been promised a thorough enquiry by the Electoral Commission into exactly what happened. Some results may be declared invalid, and if the overall situation is a hung parliament, it may be yet another argument for basically have a re-run of the entire election in the very near future. Two - this issue, along with high voter turn-out in general and large numbers of postal votes, seems to be contributing to delayed counts in a lot of the seats where it happened. As I've said, they are generally the types of seats which are most likely to come out as Labour or LibDem. So as their results do come out, they may start to show that the real Tory lead is actually smaller than it currently looks like it is going to be - at least if they are held to be valid, anyway.

Meanwhile, I'm still waiting for my current constituency, Leeds North West, to declare. I note with pleasure that Bristol West, where I lived in 1997 and cast my first vote, has seen an increased LibDem majority. But that pleasure is distinctly tarnished for me by the news that my more recent former constituency, Oxford West, has fallen to the Tories, causing the wonderful Dr. Evan Harris to lose his seat.

Elsewhere, it's a pretty depressing night for the LibDems. They've lost a few here, gained a few there, but generally look on track to do what the exit poll predicted, which is retain more or less the number of seats in parliament which they already had. I'd like to know what their overall share of the vote nationwide is - has that gone up? I hope so, as it will strengthen their ability to claim that they should be able to have a decisive input into whatever happens in the wake of this election. But it's disappointing after the support they've been enjoying lately, and far short of what I'd hoped for them.

Ooh, this just in, though - Charles Clarke loses out to a LibDem candidate, and has a face like a slapped arse! That was fun.

Anyway, dawn is breaking, and David Dimbleby is sounding pretty tired and fed up now. I guess most of us feel much the same. I'm not too tired myself, as I have been deliberately time-shifting myself over the past week in anticipation of this evening - as the time-stamps on my last few posts will make clear. This is still rather later than even I'm used to staying up, but I can do another hour or so. If you're still up too, or even getting up early to check in on LJ before you go to work, drop me a comment and let me know you're out there!

ETA (05:30): excellent! Leeds North West holds, with an increased LibDem majority! Now why couldn't that have been repeated nationwide, hmm? I could go to bed now, especially since it will still clearly be a good 24 hours before we really have the slightest clue what this result will actually mean. But I'm still anxious to hear what has happened in Sheffield Hallam (Nick Clegg's seat, and clearly badly affected by polling station problems).

ETA the second (06:40): Clegg's seat now declared, and I'm very impressed by his speech emphasising the utter unacceptability of people being deprived of their votes first, and then saying we shouldn't rush into anything without taking time to think it through. Sensible man. Apparently the Queen is a sensible woman, too - she said early on that she wouldn't see anybody before 1pm. This seems to me like advice for life; and besides I don't think she's in much danger of being disturbed today at all. I could go to bed now, but still don't feel much like it. I will pay for this later.

ETA the third (09:00): OK, the BBC are closing down their election night coverage, it's still not completely certain that the Tories won't win an outright majority but it's pretty likely, and now I think I really am going to have to go to bed. Annoyed that the LibDem's share of the vote seems to have gone up slightly overall, but their number of seats has gone down. FPTP the post is clearly never going to work for them - so here's hoping that there is enough willingness now for them to push successfully for electoral reform.

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I was so sure there was a regional divide over the pronunciation of 'scone'. And in a way, there is (according to the results of my poll, that is). But the divide is not about how you pronounce 'scone'. I now see that the nation is actually divided between one half who largely agree on how to pronounce 'scone', and one half where there is no marked preference.

People in the south have clear views on the matter. They voted to say that the majority of them (80% at the time of writing) pronounced the word as 'skon'. Yet a moderate, but notable, majority (60%) equally expressed the view that the posh way to pronounce the word is 'skoan'.

This shows that most of my southerner friends think they are gutter trash.

People in the north, meanwhile, disagree entirely over both their own pronunciation of the word, and their beliefs as to which is 'poshest'. The votes are split, near-as-dammit, right down the middle on both issues. Maybe a clearer picture would have emerged if I hadn't lumped Scotland and Northern Ireland in together with north England?

Interestingly, though, I can now see that the three people (

venta,

jurious and

kharin) who explicitly said in my first post on this matter that they thought the division between 'skoan'-sayers and 'skon'-sayers was not a matter of geography, but of random individual preference, all, in fact, describe themselves as having grown up in the North¹: within which area I now know that this is true.

Finally, the thing I really liked about this poll was that exactly equal numbers of northerners and southerners voted on it (10 each: again, as correct at the time of writing). To be brutally fair, this is probably mainly because I have just moved to Belfast and made a lot of friends here. But nonetheless, it does make me feel as though my circle of friends is extremely well-balanced.

Makes me feel like a true Midlander, in fact.

UPDATE: Since I posted this poll on

tickybox and thus acquired more data, the above findings have changed. Dang. The votes in the North are no longer split. They now follow the same pattern as the south: a preference for saying 'skon', but a tendency to believe that 'skoan' is posher. In fact, the preference for 'skon' over 'skoan' is now more marked in the North than it ever was in the South. So, perhaps there is no regional divide at all, but countrywide agreement. And perhaps we all think we are gutter trash.

Who knows?

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1. Actually, you won't see

venta's name on that page, because she didn't vote on that poll, but I know she did grow up in Yorkshire.